/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F38%2Fhansi-flick.jpg)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F38%2Fvilbar_2.jpg)
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 49.74%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.88%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Barcelona | 
| 28.12% (  0.93) | 22.14% (  0.11) | 49.74% (  -1.04) | 
| Both teams to score 64.49% (  0.41) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 64.7% (  0.2) | 35.3% (  -0.2) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 42.68% (  0.22) | 57.33% (  -0.21) | 
| Villarreal Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.49% (  0.72) | 24.52% (  -0.71) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.02% (  1) | 58.98% (  -1) | 
| Barcelona Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 85.43% (  -0.27) | 14.57% (  0.27) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.37% (  -0.53) | 42.63% (  0.53) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Villarreal | Draw | Barcelona | 
| 2-1 @ 6.8% (  0.15) 1-0 @ 5.02% (  0.05) 2-0 @ 3.53% (  0.11) 3-1 @ 3.19% (  0.13) 3-2 @ 3.07% (  0.1) 3-0 @ 1.65% (  0.08) 4-1 @ 1.12% (  0.07) 4-2 @ 1.08% (  0.06) Other @ 2.67% Total : 28.12% | 1-1 @ 9.67% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 6.55% (  0.08) 0-0 @ 3.57% (  -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.97% (  0.04) Other @ 0.37% Total : 22.14% | 1-2 @ 9.32% (  -0.08) 0-1 @ 6.88% (  -0.14) 0-2 @ 6.63% (  -0.2) 1-3 @ 5.98% (  -0.11) 0-3 @ 4.26% (  -0.17) 2-3 @ 4.21% (  0.01) 1-4 @ 2.88% (  -0.08) 0-4 @ 2.05% (  -0.1) 2-4 @ 2.03% (  -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.11% (  -0.04) 3-4 @ 0.95% (  0.01) Other @ 3.47% Total : 49.74% | 
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F38%2Fayoze-perez.jpg)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F36%2Flamine-yamal-dani-olmo.jpg)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F33%2Ffrenkie-de-jong_1.jpg)

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
| > La Liga Full Table | |||||||||
