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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo | 
| 44.96% (  0.47) | 23.89% (  -0.24) | 31.15% (  -0.24) | 
| Both teams to score 60.12% (  0.72) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 58.1% (  0.99) | 41.9% (  -1) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 35.7% (  0.99) | 64.3% (  -1) | 
| Villarreal Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.12% (  0.6) | 18.87% (  -0.6) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.66% (  0.99) | 50.34% (  -1) | 
| Celta Vigo Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 74.11% (  0.34) | 25.89% (  -0.34) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.12% (  0.46) | 60.87% (  -0.46) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo | 
| 2-1 @ 9.18% (  0.03) 1-0 @ 8.15% (  -0.21) 2-0 @ 6.79% (  -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.1% (  0.11) 3-0 @ 3.78% (  0.05) 3-2 @ 3.45% (  0.11) 4-1 @ 2.13% (  0.09) 4-0 @ 1.57% (  0.05) 4-2 @ 1.44% (  0.07) Other @ 3.38% Total : 44.96% | 1-1 @ 11% (  -0.18) 2-2 @ 6.2% (  0.08) 0-0 @ 4.89% (  -0.22) 3-3 @ 1.55% (  0.06) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.88% | 1-2 @ 7.44% (  -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.6% (  -0.23) 0-2 @ 4.46% (  -0.11) 1-3 @ 3.35% (  0.01) 2-3 @ 2.79% (  0.06) 0-3 @ 2.01% (  -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.13% (  0.01) 2-4 @ 0.94% (  0.03) Other @ 2.41% Total : 31.15% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
| > La Liga Full Table | |||||||||
