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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 68.03%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Sevilla had a probability of 14.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 3-1 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.83%), while for a Sevilla win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Sevilla | 
| 68.03% (  -3.83) | 17.54% (  1.51) | 14.43% (  2.32) | 
| Both teams to score 59.08% (  1.18) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 67.53% (  -1.7) | 32.47% (  1.7) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 45.89% (  -2) | 54.11% (  2) | 
| Barcelona Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 91.26% (  -1.23) | 8.74% (  1.23) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.95% (  -3.09) | 30.04% (  3.09) | 
| Sevilla Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 64.74% (  2.14) | 35.26% (  -2.14) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.98% (  2.17) | 72.02% (  -2.17) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Barcelona | Draw | Sevilla | 
| 2-1 @ 9.54% (  0.28) 2-0 @ 9.15% (  -0.26) 3-1 @ 7.75% (  -0.24) 1-0 @ 7.51% (  0.24) 3-0 @ 7.44% (  -0.69) 4-1 @ 4.72% (  -0.45) 4-0 @ 4.53% (  -0.73) 3-2 @ 4.04% (  0.11) 4-2 @ 2.46% (  -0.08) 5-1 @ 2.3% (  -0.38) 5-0 @ 2.21% (  -0.51) 5-2 @ 1.2% (  -0.12) 6-1 @ 0.94% (  -0.22) Other @ 4.24% Total : 68.03% | 1-1 @ 7.83% (  0.68) 2-2 @ 4.97% (  0.42) 0-0 @ 3.08% (  0.27) 3-3 @ 1.4% (  0.12) Other @ 0.25% Total : 17.54% | 1-2 @ 4.08% (  0.56) 0-1 @ 3.21% (  0.45) 2-3 @ 1.73% (  0.24) 0-2 @ 1.67% (  0.32) 1-3 @ 1.42% (  0.27) Other @ 2.31% Total : 14.43% | 
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| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
| > La Liga Full Table | |||||||||
