While it is tempting to side with Rayo in this one, given the attractive brand of football that they play, Iraola's men have been known to show some inconsistencies along the way.
Almeria are desperate for points after their torrid run of four games without a goal, so we expect them to be competitive, and ultimately grind out a point.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.
-0.07) 
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