Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.9%) and 2-1 (7.68%). The likeliest Leganes win was 0-1 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Alaves | Draw | Leganes | 
| 39.63% (  -0.37) | 29.63% (  -0.13) | 30.73% (  0.49) | 
| Both teams to score 42.44% (  0.47) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 35.57% (  0.5) | 64.43% (  -0.5) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 16.51% (  0.35) | 83.49% (  -0.35) | 
| Alaves Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.24% (  0.04) | 31.76% (  -0.04) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.81% (  0.04) | 68.19% (  -0.04) | 
| Leganes Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 62.19% (  0.66) | 37.8% (  -0.66) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.42% (  0.64) | 74.57% (  -0.64) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Alaves | Draw | Leganes | 
| 1-0 @ 13.77% (  -0.24) 2-0 @ 7.9% (  -0.13) 2-1 @ 7.68% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 3.02% (  -0.05) 3-1 @ 2.94% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 1.43% (  0.03) Other @ 2.89% Total : 39.63% | 1-1 @ 13.39% (  0.01) 0-0 @ 12% (  -0.23) 2-2 @ 3.74% (  0.07) Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.62% | 0-1 @ 11.67% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.52% (  0.12) 0-2 @ 5.68% (  0.1) 1-3 @ 2.11% (  0.08) 0-3 @ 1.84% (  0.06) 2-3 @ 1.21% (  0.04) Other @ 1.69% Total : 30.73% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
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