Potential new FA Cup header

FA Cup

Reading logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 11, 2025 at 3pm UK
Select Car Leasing Stadium
Burnley logo

Reading
1 - 3
Burnley

Wing (77')
FT
(aet)
Foster (71'), Flemming (100', 109')
Rodriguez (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Reading and Burnley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Reading

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Charlton 0-0 Reading
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One

Burnley

All competitions
Last Game: Blackburn 0-1 Burnley
Saturday, January 4 at 12.30pm in Championship

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Reading had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Reading win was 1-0 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.

Result
ReadingDrawBurnley
35.28% (-0.214 -0.21)27.36% (0.064 0.06)37.36% (0.153 0.15)
Both teams to score 49.73% (-0.214 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.16% (-0.262 -0.26)55.84% (0.267 0.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.04% (-0.211 -0.21)76.96% (0.21600000000001 0.22)
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.88% (-0.26300000000001 -0.26)30.12% (0.267 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.74% (-0.317 -0.32)66.26% (0.321 0.32)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.15% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)28.84% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.29% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)64.7% (0.049000000000007 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Reading 35.27%
    Burnley 37.36%
    Draw 27.36%
ReadingDrawBurnley
1-0 @ 10.42% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.78% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.26% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.11% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.5% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 0.93% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 35.27%
1-1 @ 12.96% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 8.69% (0.087999999999999 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.84% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 27.36%
0-1 @ 10.8% (0.1 0.1)
1-2 @ 8.06% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.71% (0.054 0.05)
1-3 @ 3.34% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.78% (0.019 0.02)
2-3 @ 2% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.04% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 37.36%

How you voted: Reading vs Burnley

Reading
23.9%
Draw
6.5%
Burnley
69.6%
46
Head to Head
Apr 15, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 42
Reading
0-0
Burnley
> Preview
Oct 29, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 18
Burnley
2-1
Reading
Benson (66'), Zaroury (90+4')
Ince (56')
> Preview
Feb 13, 2016 3pm
Reading
0-0
Burnley
Robson-Kanu (59'), Obita (70')
Barton (67')
Sep 26, 2015 3pm
Burnley
1-2
Reading
> Match Report
May 3, 2014 12.15pm
Reading
2-2
Burnley
Trippier (16'), McCleary (58')
Akpan (37')
Arfield (19'), Ings (28')
Arfield (60'), Mee (69'), Duff (81')
> Match Report