

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 42.17% ( | 24.62% ( | 33.21% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.41% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.48% ( | 44.52% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.11% ( | 66.89% ( |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.82% ( | 21.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.95% ( | 54.05% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.1% ( | 25.9% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.12% ( | 60.88% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 2-1 @ 8.93% ( 1-0 @ 8.51% ( 2-0 @ 6.61% ( 3-1 @ 4.62% ( 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 4-1 @ 1.79% ( 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 4-2 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 42.17% | 1-1 @ 11.5% ( 2-2 @ 6.03% ( 0-0 @ 5.48% ( 3-3 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.62% | 1-2 @ 7.77% ( 0-1 @ 7.41% ( 0-2 @ 5.01% ( 1-3 @ 3.5% ( 2-3 @ 2.72% ( 0-3 @ 2.25% ( 1-4 @ 1.18% 2-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.45% Total : 33.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 34 | 55 | 67 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 68 | 32 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 47 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 36 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Groningen | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 35 |
| 12 | Heracles | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 33 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Willem II | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 50 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 19 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
