

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 42.24% ( | 25.39% ( | 32.37% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.46% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.76% ( | 48.24% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.61% ( | 70.39% ( |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.27% ( | 22.74% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.59% ( | 56.42% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.78% ( | 28.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.07% ( | 63.93% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 1-0 @ 9.51% ( 2-1 @ 8.91% ( 2-0 @ 7.04% ( 3-1 @ 4.4% ( 3-0 @ 3.48% ( 3-2 @ 2.78% ( 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 4-0 @ 1.29% ( 4-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.19% Total : 42.24% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0-0 @ 6.42% ( 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 3-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 8.12% ( 1-2 @ 7.61% ( 0-2 @ 5.13% ( 1-3 @ 3.21% ( 2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0-3 @ 2.17% ( 1-4 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.75% Total : 32.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Willem II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Heracles | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Heerenveen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Almere CityAlmere City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
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