

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 64.02%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.87%) and 0-1 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 16.97% ( | 19% ( | 64.02% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.83% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.67% ( | 34.33% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.76% ( | 56.24% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.62% ( | 33.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.99% ( | 70.01% ( |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.82% ( | 10.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.55% ( | 33.45% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 4.67% ( 1-0 @ 3.73% ( 2-0 @ 2.05% ( 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 3-1 @ 1.71% ( Other @ 2.86% Total : 16.97% | 1-1 @ 8.52% ( 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0-0 @ 3.4% ( 3-3 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 0.26% Total : 19% | 1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0-2 @ 8.87% ( 0-1 @ 7.77% ( 1-3 @ 7.41% ( 0-3 @ 6.75% ( 1-4 @ 4.23% ( 2-3 @ 4.07% ( 0-4 @ 3.86% ( 2-4 @ 2.32% ( 1-5 @ 1.93% ( 0-5 @ 1.76% ( 2-5 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 4.26% Total : 64.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 39 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 18 |
| 14 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | Vitesse | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 11 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
