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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 53.78%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 21.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 0-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Cardiff City | 
| 53.78% (  -0.01) | 24.98% (  0.01) | 21.24% | 
| Both teams to score 47.62% (  -0.03) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 45.9% (  -0.05) | 54.09% (  0.04) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 24.48% (  -0.04) | 75.51% (  0.04) | 
| Watford Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.91% (  -0.03) | 20.09% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.67% (  -0.04) | 52.33% (  0.04) | 
| Cardiff City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 59.6% (  -0.02) | 40.4% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.98% (  -0.02) | 77.01% (  0.02) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Watford | Draw | Cardiff City | 
| 1-0 @ 13.02% (  0.01) 2-0 @ 10.45% 2-1 @ 9.47% (  -0) 3-0 @ 5.59% (  -0) 3-1 @ 5.07% (  -0) 3-2 @ 2.3% (  -0) 4-0 @ 2.24% (  -0) 4-1 @ 2.03% (  -0) 4-2 @ 0.92% (  -0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 53.77% | 1-1 @ 11.8% 0-0 @ 8.12% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 4.29% (  -0) Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.97% | 0-1 @ 7.36% (  0.01) 1-2 @ 5.35% (  -0) 0-2 @ 3.33% (  0) 1-3 @ 1.62% (  -0) 2-3 @ 1.3% (  -0) 0-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.28% Total : 21.24% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | 65 | 100 | 
| P | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | 53 | 100 | 
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 27 | 90 | 
| P | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 76 | 
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | 6 | 69 | 
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 68 | 
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 66 | 
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 66 | 
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 64 | 
| 10 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 | 56 | 8 | 64 | 
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 61 | 
| 12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 58 | 
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 71 | 68 | 3 | 57 | 
| 14 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 57 | 
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 53 | 63 | -10 | 56 | 
| 16 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 54 | 
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 53 | 
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 | 
| 19 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 50 | 
| 20 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 50 | 
| 21 | Hull City | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 49 | 
| R | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 51 | 88 | -37 | 46 | 
| R | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 73 | -25 | 44 | 
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