

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 37.56%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 34.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.99%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-0 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Watford in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Watford.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff City | Draw | Watford | 
| 34.66% (  0.27) | 27.78% (  0.18) | 37.56% (  -0.44) | 
| Both teams to score 48.4% (  -0.5) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 42.53% (  -0.64) | 57.47% (  0.64) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 21.73% (  -0.51) | 78.27% (  0.51) | 
| Cardiff City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.67% (  -0.15) | 31.33% (  0.15) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.31% (  -0.17) | 67.69% (  0.17) | 
| Watford Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.48% (  -0.57) | 29.52% (  0.58) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.47% (  -0.7) | 65.53% (  0.71) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Cardiff City | Draw | Watford | 
| 1-0 @ 10.73% (  0.22) 2-1 @ 7.6% (  0) 2-0 @ 6.23% (  0.1) 3-1 @ 2.94% (  -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.41% (  0.03) 3-2 @ 1.79% (  -0.04) Other @ 2.96% Total : 34.66% | 1-1 @ 13.09% (  0.06) 0-0 @ 9.25% (  0.22) 2-2 @ 4.64% (  -0.07) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.77% | 0-1 @ 11.28% (  0.1) 1-2 @ 7.99% (  -0.09) 0-2 @ 6.88% (  -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.25% (  -0.09) 0-3 @ 2.8% (  -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.89% (  -0.06) 1-4 @ 0.99% (  -0.05) Other @ 2.47% Total : 37.56% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Burnley | 46 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 87 | 35 | 52 | 101 | 
| P | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 39 | 34 | 91 | 
| P | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 80 | 
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 84 | 56 | 28 | 75 | 
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 70 | 
| 6 | Sunderland | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 69 | 
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 69 | 
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 68 | 
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 59 | 53 | 6 | 66 | 
| 10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 66 | 
| 11 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 63 | 
| 12 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 63 | 
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 62 | 
| 14 | Bristol City | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 59 | 
| 15 | Hull City | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 51 | 61 | -10 | 58 | 
| 16 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 55 | 54 | 1 | 53 | 
| 17 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 53 | 
| 18 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 53 | 
| 19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 50 | 
| 20 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 50 | 
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 49 | 
| R | Reading | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 44 | 
| R | Blackpool | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 44 | 
| R | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 42 | 
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