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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Oxford United |
| 42.21% ( | 25.03% ( | 32.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.84% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.5% ( | 46.5% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.22% ( | 68.78% ( |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78% ( | 22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.69% ( | 55.31% ( |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.87% ( | 27.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.48% ( | 62.52% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Oxford United |
| 1-0 @ 9.04% ( 2-1 @ 8.93% ( 2-0 @ 6.84% ( 3-1 @ 4.5% ( 3-0 @ 3.45% ( 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 4-1 @ 1.71% ( 4-0 @ 1.31% ( 4-2 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.39% Total : 42.21% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0-0 @ 5.97% ( 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 3-3 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.02% | 0-1 @ 7.79% ( 1-2 @ 7.69% ( 0-2 @ 5.08% ( 1-3 @ 3.34% ( 2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 1-4 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 3.03% Total : 32.76% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | 65 | 100 |
| P | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | 53 | 100 |
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 27 | 90 |
| P | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 76 |
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | 6 | 69 |
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 68 |
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 66 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 66 |
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 64 |
| 10 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 | 56 | 8 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 61 |
| 12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 58 |
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 71 | 68 | 3 | 57 |
| 14 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 57 |
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 53 | 63 | -10 | 56 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 54 |
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 53 |
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 |
| 19 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 50 |
| 20 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 50 |
| 21 | Hull City | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 49 |
| R | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 51 | 88 | -37 | 46 |
| R | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 73 | -25 | 44 |
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