Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 43.6%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Peterborough United | Draw | Derby County |
| 43.6% | 27% | 29.39% |
| Both teams to score 49.07% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.14% | 55.86% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.02% | 76.98% |
| Peterborough United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.57% | 25.42% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.75% | 60.24% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.81% | 34.19% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.11% | 70.88% |
| Score Analysis |
| Peterborough United | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 11.9% 2-1 @ 8.75% 2-0 @ 8.15% 3-1 @ 3.99% 3-0 @ 3.72% 3-2 @ 2.14% 4-1 @ 1.37% 4-0 @ 1.27% Other @ 2.3% Total : 43.6% | 1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.69% 2-2 @ 4.69% Other @ 0.84% Total : 27% | 0-1 @ 9.33% 1-2 @ 6.86% 0-2 @ 5.01% 1-3 @ 2.45% 0-3 @ 1.79% 2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.28% Total : 29.39% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Burnley | 37 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 74 | 29 | 45 | 83 |
| 2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 37 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 58 | 33 | 25 | 70 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 38 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 69 | 42 | 27 | 67 |
| 4 | Luton TownLuton | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 64 |
| 5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 37 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 61 |
| 6 | Millwall | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 60 |
| 7 | Norwich CityNorwich | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 57 |
| 8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 38 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 57 |
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 55 |
| 10 | Watford | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 55 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 53 |
| 12 | Preston North EndPreston | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 53 |
| 13 | Stoke CityStoke | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 48 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 48 |
| 15 | Hull City | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 47 |
| 16 | Swansea CitySwansea | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 46 |
| 17 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 45 |
| 18 | Reading | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 45 |
| 19 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 38 | 59 | -21 | 42 |
| 20 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 40 |
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 39 |
| 22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 36 |
| 23 | Blackpool | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 35 |
| 24 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 38 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 31 |
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