Australia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Gameweek 9 | 2nd Leg
Jun 5, 2025 at 12.10pm UK
 
Japan national football team

Australia
1 - 0
Japan

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Australia and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

All competitions
Last Game: China 0-2 Australia
Tuesday, March 25 at 11am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Japan

All competitions
Last Game: Japan 0-0 Saudi Arabia
Tuesday, March 25 at 10.35am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Australia win with a probability of 37.78%. A win for Japan has a probability of 36.86% and a draw has a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Japan win is 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.97%).

Result
AustraliaDrawJapan
37.78% (1.664 1.66)25.36% (-0.156 -0.16)36.86% (-1.507 -1.51)
Both teams to score 56.46% (0.593 0.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.67% (0.745 0.74)47.33% (-0.743 -0.74)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.45% (0.687 0.69)69.55% (-0.68599999999999 -0.69)
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.39% (1.269 1.27)24.61% (-1.268 -1.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.89% (1.746 1.75)59.11% (-1.743 -1.74)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.89% (-0.479 -0.48)25.11% (0.481 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.19% (-0.667 -0.67)59.81% (0.669 0.67)
Score Analysis
    Australia 37.78%
    Japan 36.86%
    Draw 25.36%
AustraliaDrawJapan
1-0 @ 8.66% (0.048 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.39% (0.233 0.23)
2-0 @ 6.07% (0.251 0.25)
3-1 @ 3.92% (0.246 0.25)
3-0 @ 2.84% (0.215 0.22)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.135 0.14)
4-1 @ 1.38% (0.132 0.13)
4-0 @ 1% (0.108 0.11)
4-2 @ 0.95% (0.079 0.08)
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 37.78%
1-1 @ 11.97% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-0 @ 6.18% (-0.194 -0.19)
2-2 @ 5.8% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.36%
0-1 @ 8.54% (-0.391 -0.39)
1-2 @ 8.27% (-0.186 -0.19)
0-2 @ 5.9% (-0.357 -0.36)
1-3 @ 3.81% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-3 @ 2.72% (-0.205 -0.21)
2-3 @ 2.67% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.32% (-0.067 -0.07)
0-4 @ 0.94% (-0.085 -0.09)
2-4 @ 0.92% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 36.86%

How you voted: Australia vs Japan

Australia
29.6%
Draw
37.0%
Japan
33.3%
27
Head to Head
Oct 15, 2024 11.35am
Third Round
Japan
1-1
Australia
Burgess (76' og.)
Taniguchi (58' og.)
Bos (61'), Yazbek (80'), Goodwin (89'), Burgess (94')
> Preview
Mar 24, 2022 9.10am
Third Round
Australia
0-2
Japan

Metcalfe (15'), Stensness (55')
Mitoma (89', 90+4')
Nagatomo (10')
> Preview
Oct 12, 2021 11.14am
Third Round
Japan
2-1
Australia
Tanaka (8'), Behich (85' og.)
Morita (68')
Hrustic (70')
Behich (63'), Souttar (90+3')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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