World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Sep 10, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stad al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Bahrain
0 - 5
Japan

Al Khatal (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ueda (37' pen., 47'), Morita (61', 64'), Ogawa (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's AFC World Cup Qualifying clash between Bahrain and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahrain

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Australia 0-1 Bahrain
Thursday, September 5 at 11.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bahrain	3	0	6
2	South Korea	3	2	5
3	Jordan	3	3	4
4	Malaysia	3	-5	1

Japan

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Japan 7-0 China
Thursday, September 5 at 11.35am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iraq	3	4	9
2	Japan	3	3	6
3	Indonesia	3	-3	3
4	Vietnam	3	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 55.68%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Bahrain had a probability of 21.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Bahrain win it was 2-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
Bahrain	Draw	Japan
21.77% ( 0.24)	22.54% ( 0.1)	55.68% ( -0.34)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Bahrain	Draw	Japan
2-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.19% Total : 21.77%	1-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.54%	1-2 @ 9.88% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.13% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 6.14% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 5.68% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.87% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 2.65% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.62% Total : 55.68%