Austin FC
MLS Playoffs | Regular Season
May 15, 2025 at 2am UK
Al Saqr Stadium
Atlanta United

Austin
1 - 1
Atlanta

Vazquez (55', 55')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Thiare (90+2', 90+2')
Fortune (59'), Fortune (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's MLS Playoffs clash between Austin FC and Atlanta United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austin FC

All competitions
Last Game: Cincinnati 2-1 Austin
Sunday, May 11 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Atlanta United

All competitions
Last Game: Chicago Fire 2-1 Atlanta
Saturday, May 10 at 7.30pm in Major League Soccer

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 51.86%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 25.15% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Austin FCDrawAtlanta United
51.86% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)22.99% (0.023 0.02)25.15% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Both teams to score 58.57% (-0.068000000000005 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.13% (-0.093000000000004 -0.09)41.87% (0.090999999999994 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.73% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)64.27% (0.088999999999999 0.09)
Austin FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.78% (-0.044999999999987 -0.04)16.22% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.28% (-0.080999999999996 -0.08)45.72% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.91% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)30.09% (0.041999999999998 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.77% (-0.052 -0.05)66.23% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Austin FC 51.86%
    Atlanta United 25.15%
    Draw 22.99%
Austin FCDrawAtlanta United
2-1 @ 9.7% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 8.88% (0.023 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.07% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.88% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.9% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-2 @ 3.53% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.67% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.23% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.61% (-0.006 -0.01)
5-1 @ 0.97% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.43%
Total : 51.86%
1-1 @ 10.66% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.82% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.88% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.41% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.99%
1-2 @ 6.4% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.86% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.52% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.56% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
2-3 @ 2.33% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.41% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 25.15%

How you voted: Austin vs Atlanta

Austin FC
70.0%
Draw
20.0%
Atlanta United
10.0%
10
Head to Head
Jul 10, 2022 12am
Atlanta
0-3
Austin
Felipe (9'), Finlay (17'), Driussi (57')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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