Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 16
May 3, 2025 at 10.30pm UK
Estadio El Fortin de Luduena
Independiente

Rosario
1 - 0
Independiente

Sporle (20' og.)
Sandez (16'), Copetti (75'), Malcorra (78'), Coronel (83'), Gimenez (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Freire (11'), Cabral (41'), Joel Medina (52'), Vera (56'), Sporle (84')
Coverage of the Argentine Primera Division clash between Rosario Central and Independiente.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rosario Central

All competitions
Last Game: San Lorenzo 0-1 Rosario
Saturday, April 26 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division

Independiente

All competitions
Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Tucuman 2-0 Independiente
Thursday, May 1 at 1am in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (10.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rosario Central in this match.

Result
Rosario CentralDrawIndependiente
41.14% (1.317 1.32)28.4% (0.121 0.12)30.46% (-1.437 -1.44)
Both teams to score 45.62% (-0.806 -0.81)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.53% (-0.779 -0.78)60.46% (0.779 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.41% (-0.592 -0.59)80.59% (0.59400000000001 0.59)
Rosario Central Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.11% (0.373 0.37)28.89% (-0.372 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.23% (0.459 0.46)64.77% (-0.458 -0.46)
Independiente Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.16% (-1.478 -1.48)35.84% (1.478 1.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.38% (-1.548 -1.55)72.62% (1.548 1.55)
Score Analysis
    Rosario Central 41.14%
    Independiente 30.46%
    Draw 28.39%
Rosario CentralDrawIndependiente
1-0 @ 12.85% (0.5 0.5)
2-1 @ 8.19% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
2-0 @ 7.98% (0.389 0.39)
3-1 @ 3.39% (0.067 0.07)
3-0 @ 3.3% (0.194 0.19)
3-2 @ 1.74% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.05% (0.032 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.03% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 41.14%
1-1 @ 13.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 10.35% (0.3 0.3)
2-2 @ 4.2% (-0.129 -0.13)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 28.39%
0-1 @ 10.62% (-0.12 -0.12)
1-2 @ 6.77% (-0.281 -0.28)
0-2 @ 5.45% (-0.286 -0.29)
1-3 @ 2.32% (-0.195 -0.2)
0-3 @ 1.87% (-0.178 -0.18)
2-3 @ 1.44% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 2%
Total : 30.46%

Head to Head
Aug 17, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 11
Independiente
1-0
Rosario
Lomonaco (17')
Martinez (34'), Tarzia (43'), Marcone (44'), Hidalgo (80'), Mancuello (90+8'), Mancuello (90+8')

Martinez (24'), Ocampo (45'), Ortiz (45+5'), Barbieri (54')
Feb 14, 2024 12.30am
Gameweek 5
Independiente
1-0
Rosario
Mancuello (32')
Neves (24'), Martinez (81'), Marcone (90+4')

Lovera (36'), Broun (81'), Lo Celso (90+2')
Sep 20, 2023 1am
Gameweek 5
Rosario
1-1
Independiente
Campaz (76')
Martinez (22'), Campaz (68')
Baez (45')
Martinez (35'), Baez (40'), Aguilar (82')
Apr 13, 2023 1.30am
Gameweek 11
Rosario
1-0
Independiente
Campaz (23')
Jul 16, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 8
Independiente
0-0
Rosario
Fernandez (54'), Vigo (54'), Pozzo (57'), Romero (67')
Montoya (16'), Buonanotte (60'), Blanco (75'), Frias (84')
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