Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.
