Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
