Shimizu S-Pulse and Gamba Osaka square off in the J1 League on Sunday with just one point separating the teams in the table.
The home team - last season's J2 League champions - are currently above their more illustrious visitors and will be looking to maintain that advantage.
Match preview
Having earned a spot back in the Japanese top flight, everyone associate with Shimizu S-Pulse would have been satisfied with remaining in the division for 2026.
Instead, 25 points have been accumulated from 19 matches, leaving them just nine points adrift of third position at this stage of the season.
On a negative note, though, four defeats have been posted in six games, the only win during that period coming by a 3-2 scoreline against Vissel Kobe.
Last time out, Cerezo Osaka prevailed 4-2 to move ahead of Shimizu in the table, and Tadahiro Akiba's side now sit six points above the relegation zone.
Despite sitting in the top half of the standings, that will need to remain in their thoughts, particularly when facing a team in Gamba Osaka who are below them in the standings.
The fourth-placed finish from 2024 suggested that the Black-and-Blues were ready to return to their former glories, but Daniel Poyatos's side have been disappointing this year.
Three defeats in four games, the other fixture ending in a draw, has left Gamba Osaka facing the possibility of another relegation battle.
Ultimately, a three-game winning streak between April 29 and May 6 has ensured that they are out of immediate trouble for the time being.
When these two teams met in March, Gamba Osaka ran out 1-0 victors, Ryoya Yamashita netting one of his five goals of the campaign in that fixture.
Shimizu S-Pulse J1 League form:
L L D L W L
Gamba Osaka J1 League form:
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Team News
with Koya Kitagawa being withdrawn in the 25th minute last time out, Riki Gunji - who scored as a substitute - is in line for an opportunity in attack for Shimizu
Sodai Hasukawa and Hikaru Nakahara are also pushing for recalls, but veteran playmaker Takashi Inui should retain his spot in the number 10 role.
If Poyatos chooses to make any alterations to his Gamba Osaka, Welton is most likely to come into the team.
However, Shu Kurata is another alternative in the final third, the 36-year-old having netted three times in 16 games this campaign.
Shimizu S-Pulse possible starting lineup:
Oki; Takagi, Takahashi, Sumiyoshi, Yamahara; Uno, Bueno; Matsuzaki, Inui, Capixaba; Gunji
Gamba Osaka possible starting lineup:
Ichimori; Handa, Nakatani, Fukuoka, Kurokawa; Mitsuda, Lavi; Yamashita, Usami, Alano; Hummet
We say: Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 Gamba Osaka
Although there is an argument that Gamba Osaka remain the favourites for this contest, we have to give a certain level of respect to the home side. Therefore, we are predicting a competitive, low-scoring draw that will suit Shimizu far more than the visitors.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse has a probability of 29.75% and a draw has a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win is 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.64%).