Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 66.97%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 12.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.59%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lazio | Draw | Genoa |
| 66.97% ( | 20.63% ( | 12.39% ( |
| Both teams to score 42.56% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.77% ( | 51.23% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.93% ( | 73.06% ( |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.58% ( | 14.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.65% ( | 42.34% ( |
| Genoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.73% ( | 50.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.16% ( | 84.84% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Lazio | Draw | Genoa |
| 1-0 @ 14.03% ( 2-0 @ 13.59% ( 2-1 @ 9.35% ( 3-0 @ 8.77% ( 3-1 @ 6.04% ( 4-0 @ 4.25% ( 4-1 @ 2.92% ( 3-2 @ 2.08% ( 5-0 @ 1.65% ( 5-1 @ 1.13% ( 4-2 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.16% Total : 66.97% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( 0-0 @ 7.25% ( 2-2 @ 3.22% ( Other @ 0.52% Total : 20.63% | 0-1 @ 4.99% ( 1-2 @ 3.32% ( 0-2 @ 1.71% ( Other @ 2.37% Total : 12.39% |