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Serie A | Gameweek 5
Sep 3, 2022 at 5pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Inter logo
AC Milan
3 - 2
Inter Milan
Leao (28', 60'), Giroud (54')
Hernandez (9'), Giroud (32'), De Ketelaere (51'), Tonali (77'), Leao (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Brozovic (21'), Dzeko (67')
Dumfries (9'), Brozovic (39'), Inzaghi (71')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Inter Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

Last Six:
Last Game: Sassuolo 0-0 AC Milan
Tuesday, August 30 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Inter Milan

Last Six:
Last Game: Inter Milan 3-1 Cremonese
Tuesday, August 30 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan

 Meeting for the 177th time in Serie A, these two titans have recently risen back to the top of the Italian game through improved management and investment, and there is not a lot to separate them. However, Inter's ability to find a goal from anywhere across a squad which is slightly deeper than Milan's should prove the difference in the season's first Derby della Madonnina. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.

Result
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
32.93% (-0.742 -0.74) 25.5% (-0.989 -0.99) 41.56% (1.726 1.73)
Both teams to score 55.28% (3.044 3.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.45% (4.011 4.01)48.54% (-4.015 -4.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.33% (3.545 3.55)70.66% (-3.551 -3.55)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.98% (1.495 1.5)28.01% (-1.499 -1.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.34% (1.865 1.87)63.66% (-1.87 -1.87)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.8% (2.687 2.69)23.2% (-2.692 -2.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.9% (3.78 3.78)57.09% (-3.785 -3.79)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 32.93%
    Inter Milan 41.56%
    Draw 25.5%
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
1-0 @ 8.27% (-1.055 -1.06)
2-1 @ 7.69% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-0 @ 5.26% (-0.429 -0.43)
3-1 @ 3.26% (0.133 0.13)
3-2 @ 2.38% (0.269 0.27)
3-0 @ 2.23% (-0.083 -0.08)
4-1 @ 1.04% (0.083 0.08)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 32.93%
1-1 @ 12.08% (-0.52 -0.52)
0-0 @ 6.5% (-1.142 -1.14)
2-2 @ 5.62% (0.421 0.42)
3-3 @ 1.16% (0.208 0.21)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.5%
0-1 @ 9.49% (-0.826 -0.83)
1-2 @ 8.83% (0.313 0.31)
0-2 @ 6.94% (-0.04 -0.04)
1-3 @ 4.3% (0.464 0.46)
0-3 @ 3.38% (0.236 0.24)
2-3 @ 2.74% (0.395 0.4)
1-4 @ 1.57% (0.274 0.27)
0-4 @ 1.23% (0.172 0.17)
2-4 @ 1% (0.208 0.21)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 41.56%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Inter Milan

AC Milan
42.7%
Draw
22.9%
Inter Milan
34.4%
227
Head to Head
Apr 19, 2022 8pm
Inter Milan
3-0
AC Milan
Martinez (4', 40'), Gosens (82')
Skriniar (50')

Hernandez (35'), Tomori (90')
Mar 1, 2022 8pm
AC Milan
0-0
Inter Milan

Brozovic (33'), Martinez (58')
Feb 5, 2022 5pm
Inter Milan
1-2
AC Milan
Perisic (38')
Calhanoglu (60'), Skriniar (84')
Giroud (75', 78')
Romagnoli (21'), Diaz (72'), Bennacer (76'), Krunic (90+1')
Hernandez (90+5')
Nov 7, 2021 7.45pm
AC Milan
1-1
Inter Milan
De Vrij (17' og.)
Ballo-Toure (26')
Calhanoglu (11' pen.)
Feb 21, 2021 2pm
AC Milan
0-3
Inter Milan

Kjaer (12'), Saelemaekers (56')
Martinez (5', 57'), Lukaku (66')
Hakimi (22')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CNapoli37276475284787
2Lazio37218858302871
3Inter Milan372231270422869
4AC Milan371910861421967
5Atalanta BCAtalanta371871261461561
6Roma371791148371160
7Juventus372161055332259
8Torino371411124240253
9Fiorentina371411125042853
10Monza371410134647-152
11Bologna371312125047351
12Udinese371113134747046
13SassuoloSassuolo37129164658-1245
14Empoli371013143747-1043
15Salernitana37915134860-1242
16Lecce37812173143-1236
17SpeziaSpezia37613183060-3031
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona37710203056-2631
19Cremonese37412213469-3524
RSampdoria37310242469-4519
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