Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 36

May 4, 2024 at 3pm UK

Turf Moor

Burnley
1 - 4
Newcastle

O'Shea (86')
Esteve (37'), Brownhill (51')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Wilson (19'), Longstaff (35'), Guimaraes (40'), Isak (55')
Wilson (18'), Anderson (72')

The Match

Match Report

Burnley are left five points from Premier League safety courtesy of a 4-1 home defeat to Newcastle United on Saturday afternoon.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley

All competitions

Last Game: Man Utd 1-1 Burnley
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Newcastle United

All competitions

Last Game: Newcastle 5-1 Sheff Utd
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.66%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Burnley win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Burnley	Draw	Newcastle United
36.34% ( -0.02)	23.36% ( -0.07)	40.3% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 63.82% (

0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.22% (

0.36)

37.78% (

-0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.98% (

0.38)

60.02% (

-0.38)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.96% (

0.15)

21.04% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.16% (

0.23)

53.84% (

-0.23)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.83% (

0.19)

19.17% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.16% (

0.32)

50.84% (

-0.32)

Score Analysis

Burnley 36.34%

Newcastle United 40.3%

Draw 23.35%

Burnley	Draw	Newcastle United
2-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.85% Total : 36.34%	1-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.35%	1-2 @ 8.58% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.72% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.68% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.03% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 40.3%