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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Toronto | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 9 | Atlanta United | 29 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 29 | -10 | 32 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 6 | Toronto | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 29 | -10 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 56.19%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 21.99% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atlanta United | Draw | Toronto |
| 56.19% ( | 21.83% ( | 21.99% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.66% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.04% ( | 39.96% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.67% ( | 62.32% ( |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.89% ( | 14.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.26% ( | 41.74% ( |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.29% ( | 31.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.87% ( | 68.13% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Atlanta United | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 1-0 @ 8.76% ( 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 3-1 @ 6.43% ( 3-0 @ 5.6% ( 3-2 @ 3.69% ( 4-1 @ 3.15% ( 4-0 @ 2.74% ( 4-2 @ 1.81% ( 5-1 @ 1.23% ( 5-0 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 3.26% Total : 56.19% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0-0 @ 4.47% ( 3-3 @ 1.42% ( Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 5.78% ( 0-1 @ 5.14% ( 0-2 @ 2.95% ( 1-3 @ 2.21% ( 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0-3 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 2.61% Total : 21.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New England RevolutionNew England | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Toronto | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | DC United | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 3 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Dallas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
