| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Toronto | 28 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 | Atlanta United | 26 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 27 | -10 | 30 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | -14 | 29 |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | -12 | 26 |
| 10 | DC United | 26 | -28 | 22 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 63.3%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for DC United had a probability of 16.82%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a DC United win it was 1-2 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atlanta United | Draw | DC United |
| 63.3% ( | 19.88% ( | 16.82% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.19% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.11% ( | 38.88% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.8% ( | 61.19% ( |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.3% ( | 11.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.21% ( | 36.79% ( |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.63% ( | 36.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.84% ( | 73.15% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Atlanta United | Draw | DC United |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 2-0 @ 9.79% ( 1-0 @ 9.13% ( 3-1 @ 7.09% ( 3-0 @ 7.01% ( 4-1 @ 3.8% ( 4-0 @ 3.76% ( 3-2 @ 3.58% ( 4-2 @ 1.92% ( 5-1 @ 1.63% ( 5-0 @ 1.61% ( Other @ 4.06% Total : 63.3% | 1-1 @ 9.23% ( 2-2 @ 5.01% ( 0-0 @ 4.25% ( 3-3 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 19.88% | 1-2 @ 4.67% 0-1 @ 4.3% ( 0-2 @ 2.18% ( 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 1-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.41% Total : 16.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 26 | 42 | 64 |
| 2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 33 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 60 | 49 | 11 | 62 |
| 3 | New York City FCNY City | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 55 | 40 | 15 | 52 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 32 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 57 | 51 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 45 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 45 |
| 8 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 45 |
| 9 | New England RevolutionNew England | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 32 | 13 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 41 |
| 11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 40 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 | Toronto | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 62 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | DC United | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 27 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 26 | 42 | 64 |
| 2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 33 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 60 | 49 | 11 | 62 |
| 3 | New York City FCNY City | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 55 | 40 | 15 | 52 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 32 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 57 | 51 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 45 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 45 |
| 8 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 45 |
| 9 | New England RevolutionNew England | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 32 | 13 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 41 |
| 11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 40 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 | Toronto | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 62 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | DC United | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 27 |
