

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 48.54%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 25.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (8.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Lorient |
| 48.54% ( | 26.35% ( | 25.12% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.98% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.2% ( | 55.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.07% ( | 76.93% ( |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.97% ( | 23.03% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.16% ( | 56.85% ( |
| Lorient Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.34% ( | 37.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.56% ( | 74.44% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Metz | Draw | Lorient |
| 1-0 @ 12.73% ( 2-0 @ 9.35% ( 2-1 @ 9.13% ( 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 3-1 @ 4.47% ( 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 4-0 @ 1.68% ( 4-1 @ 1.64% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 48.53% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0-0 @ 8.67% ( 2-2 @ 4.46% ( Other @ 0.78% Total : 26.34% | 0-1 @ 8.47% ( 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0-2 @ 4.14% ( 1-3 @ 1.98% ( 2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0-3 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 1.66% Total : 25.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 32 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 77 | 32 | 45 | 70 |
| 2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 |
| 4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
| 5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 |
| 6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 |
| 8 | Marseille | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 39 | 11 | 47 |
| 9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 |
| 11 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 |
| 13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
| 14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 |
| 15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
| 16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 |
| 17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 |
| R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 |
| > Ligue 1 Full Table | |||||||||
