Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.41%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (12.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Colchester United | 
| 34.17% | 29.43% | 36.4% | 
| Both teams to score 43.63% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 36.69% | 63.31% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 17.31% | 82.69% | 
| Crawley Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 65.31% | 34.69% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.59% | 71.42% | 
| Colchester United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 66.8% | 33.2% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.2% | 69.81% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Crawley Town | Draw | Colchester United | 
| 1-0 @ 12.19% 2-1 @ 7.12% 2-0 @ 6.46% 3-1 @ 2.51% 3-0 @ 2.28% 3-2 @ 1.39% Other @ 2.23% Total : 34.17% | 1-1 @ 13.44% 0-0 @ 11.51% 2-2 @ 3.92% Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.42% | 0-1 @ 12.69% 1-2 @ 7.41% 0-2 @ 7% 1-3 @ 2.72% 0-3 @ 2.57% 2-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 2.55% Total : 36.39% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | Leyton Orient | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 84 | 
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 43 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 77 | 
| 3 | Stevenage | 42 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 76 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 72 | 
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 43 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 72 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 42 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 71 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 43 | 20 | 9 | 14 | 66 | 49 | 17 | 69 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 42 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 67 | 51 | 16 | 69 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 43 | 18 | 8 | 17 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 62 | 
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 43 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 57 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 55 | 
| 12 | Grimsby Town | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 55 | 
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 43 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 54 | 
| 14 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 43 | 15 | 7 | 21 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 52 | 
| 15 | Walsall | 43 | 11 | 18 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 51 | 
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 51 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 43 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 51 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 42 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 50 | 
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 47 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 43 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 46 | 
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 42 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 45 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 43 | 10 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 42 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 43 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 74 | -26 | 39 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 43 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 41 | 67 | -26 | 34 | 
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