

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 45.39%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 28.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Shrewsbury Town |
| 45.39% ( | 26.48% ( | 28.13% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.89% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.54% ( | 54.46% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.17% ( | 75.83% ( |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.08% ( | 23.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.86% ( | 58.14% ( |
| Shrewsbury Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.57% ( | 34.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.86% ( | 71.13% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Port Vale | Draw | Shrewsbury Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.77% ( 2-1 @ 8.98% ( 2-0 @ 8.42% ( 3-1 @ 4.28% ( 3-0 @ 4.02% ( 3-2 @ 2.28% ( 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 4-0 @ 1.44% ( Other @ 2.65% Total : 45.38% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0-0 @ 8.24% ( 2-2 @ 4.79% ( Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.48% | 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 1-2 @ 6.7% ( 0-2 @ 4.68% ( 1-3 @ 2.38% ( 2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0-3 @ 1.66% ( Other @ 2.22% Total : 28.13% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
| P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
| 3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
| 4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
| 5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
| 7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
| 8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
| 10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
| 12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
| 14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
| 16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
| 17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
| 18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
| 20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
| R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
| R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
| R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
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