Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lincoln City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
| 33.2% ( | 26.42% ( | 40.37% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.34% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.63% ( | 52.37% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.94% ( | 74.05% ( |
| Lincoln City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.27% ( | 29.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.21% ( | 65.79% ( |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.48% ( | 25.52% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.63% ( | 60.37% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Lincoln City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
| 1-0 @ 9.2% ( 2-1 @ 7.62% ( 2-0 @ 5.58% ( 3-1 @ 3.08% ( 3-0 @ 2.26% ( 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 4-1 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.41% Total : 33.2% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0-0 @ 7.58% ( 2-2 @ 5.21% ( 3-3 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.42% | 0-1 @ 10.35% ( 1-2 @ 8.58% ( 0-2 @ 7.08% ( 1-3 @ 3.91% ( 0-3 @ 3.22% ( 2-3 @ 2.37% ( 1-4 @ 1.34% ( 0-4 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 2.42% Total : 40.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 41 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 84 |
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 40 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 44 | 26 | 83 |
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 40 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 82 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 40 | 24 | 6 | 10 | 69 | 37 | 32 | 78 |
| 5 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 41 | 22 | 4 | 15 | 71 | 48 | 23 | 70 |
| 6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 40 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 41 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 68 |
| 8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 41 | 19 | 8 | 14 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 65 |
| 9 | Portsmouth | 41 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 63 |
| 10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 41 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 62 | 53 | 9 | 55 |
| 11 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 40 | 16 | 7 | 17 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 55 |
| 12 | Exeter CityExeter | 41 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 53 |
| 13 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 40 | 11 | 19 | 10 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 52 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 51 |
| 15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 41 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 50 |
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 41 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 46 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 41 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 46 |
| 18 | Burton Albion | 39 | 12 | 9 | 18 | 51 | 74 | -23 | 45 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 41 | 11 | 9 | 21 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 42 |
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 40 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 40 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 40 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 38 |
| 22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 40 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 33 | 61 | -28 | 37 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 42 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 38 | 71 | -33 | 35 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 41 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 76 | -47 | 26 |
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