Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.32%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Plymouth Argyle | 
| 28.27% (  -0.3) | 24.26% (  0.31) | 47.47% (  -0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 57.04% (  -1.28) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.84% (  -1.58) | 45.16% (  1.58) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.5% (  -1.54) | 67.5% (  1.54) | 
| Accrington Stanley Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.54% (  -1.02) | 29.46% (  1.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.54% (  -1.27) | 65.47% (  1.27) | 
| Plymouth Argyle Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.87% (  -0.63) | 19.13% (  0.63) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.23% (  -1.04) | 50.77% (  1.05) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Plymouth Argyle | 
| 2-1 @ 6.96% (  -0.06) 1-0 @ 6.89% (  0.27) 2-0 @ 4.21% (  0.05) 3-1 @ 2.84% (  -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.35% (  -0.14) 3-0 @ 1.72% (  -0.03) Other @ 3.32% Total : 28.27% | 1-1 @ 11.39% (  0.23) 2-2 @ 5.76% (  -0.17) 0-0 @ 5.64% (  0.37) 3-3 @ 1.29% (  -0.1) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.25% | 1-2 @ 9.42% (  0) 0-1 @ 9.32% (  0.44) 0-2 @ 7.71% (  0.22) 1-3 @ 5.19% (  -0.1) 0-3 @ 4.25% (  0.04) 2-3 @ 3.17% (  -0.16) 1-4 @ 2.15% (  -0.09) 0-4 @ 1.76% (  -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.31% (  -0.09) Other @ 3.19% Total : 47.48% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 43 | 28 | 8 | 7 | 76 | 46 | 30 | 92 | 
| 2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 90 | 33 | 57 | 91 | 
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 77 | 37 | 40 | 90 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 43 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 85 | 
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 43 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 75 | 
| 6 | Derby CountyDerby | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 66 | 44 | 22 | 75 | 
| 7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 44 | 23 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 73 | 
| 8 | Portsmouth | 44 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 58 | 47 | 11 | 68 | 
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 44 | 20 | 8 | 16 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 68 | 
| 10 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 43 | 13 | 20 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 59 | 
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 44 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 65 | 62 | 3 | 58 | 
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 44 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 57 | 
| 13 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 43 | 16 | 8 | 19 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 56 | 
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 53 | 
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 42 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 55 | 66 | -11 | 52 | 
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 43 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 40 | 55 | -15 | 50 | 
| 17 | Port Vale | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 49 | 
| 18 | Burton Albion | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 55 | 78 | -23 | 49 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 44 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 43 | 
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 43 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 41 | 
| 21 | Morecambe | 44 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 42 | 73 | -31 | 41 | 
| 22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 43 | 11 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 66 | -29 | 40 | 
| 23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 43 | 9 | 11 | 23 | 36 | 74 | -38 | 38 | 
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 31 | 84 | -53 | 27 | 
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