Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for Las Palmas had a probability of 27.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Las Palmas win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Las Palmas | 
| 48.82% (  2.06) | 24.08% (  -0.22) | 27.11% (  -1.84) | 
| Both teams to score 56.73% (  -0.66) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.84% (  -0.24) | 45.15% (  0.24) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.5% (  -0.23) | 67.5% (  0.23) | 
| Villarreal Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.41% (  0.74) | 18.59% (  -0.74) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.13% (  1.23) | 49.87% (  -1.23) | 
| Las Palmas Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.68% (  -1.46) | 30.32% (  1.46) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.5% (  -1.78) | 66.5% (  1.78) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Villarreal | Draw | Las Palmas | 
| 2-1 @ 9.52% (  0.16) 1-0 @ 9.48% (  0.32) 2-0 @ 7.98% (  0.44) 3-1 @ 5.34% (  0.21) 3-0 @ 4.47% (  0.35) 3-2 @ 3.19% (  -0) 4-1 @ 2.25% (  0.14) 4-0 @ 1.88% (  0.19) 4-2 @ 1.34% (  0.03) Other @ 3.37% Total : 48.82% | 1-1 @ 11.31% (  -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.68% (  -0.14) 0-0 @ 5.64% (  0.06) 3-3 @ 1.27% (  -0.05) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.07% | 1-2 @ 6.75% (  -0.33) 0-1 @ 6.73% (  -0.21) 0-2 @ 4.01% (  -0.29) 1-3 @ 2.69% (  -0.25) 2-3 @ 2.26% (  -0.15) 0-3 @ 1.6% (  -0.19) Other @ 3.07% Total : 27.11% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
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