

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 47.66%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 47.66% ( | 29.14% ( | 23.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 39.26% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.91% ( | 66.09% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.35% ( | 84.64% ( |
| Real Valladolid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.87% ( | 28.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.19% ( | 63.81% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.62% ( | 45.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.77% ( | 81.23% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 16.18% ( 2-0 @ 10.26% ( 2-1 @ 8.11% ( 3-0 @ 4.34% ( 3-1 @ 3.43% ( 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 3-2 @ 1.36% ( 4-1 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 1.51% Total : 47.65% | 1-1 @ 12.79% ( 0-0 @ 12.76% ( 2-2 @ 3.21% ( Other @ 0.38% Total : 29.14% | 0-1 @ 10.08% 1-2 @ 5.06% ( 0-2 @ 3.99% ( 1-3 @ 1.33% ( 0-3 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 1.68% Total : 23.18% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 |
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 |
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
| > La Liga Full Table | |||||||||
