

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 49.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Granada had a probability of 24.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a Granada win it was 0-1 (8.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Granada |
| 49.4% | 26.33% | 24.27% |
| Both teams to score 47.26% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.65% | 56.35% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.63% | 77.37% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.13% | 22.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.38% | 56.61% |
| Granada Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.27% | 38.73% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.53% | 75.46% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Granada |
| 1-0 @ 13.06% 2-0 @ 9.64% 2-1 @ 9.14% 3-0 @ 4.74% 3-1 @ 4.5% 3-2 @ 2.13% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-1 @ 1.66% Other @ 2.77% Total : 49.39% | 1-1 @ 12.39% 0-0 @ 8.86% 2-2 @ 4.34% Other @ 0.74% Total : 26.32% | 0-1 @ 8.4% 1-2 @ 5.88% 0-2 @ 3.99% 1-3 @ 1.86% 2-3 @ 1.37% 0-3 @ 1.26% Other @ 1.51% Total : 24.27% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Real Madrid | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 83 | 22 | 61 | 93 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 76 |
| 3 | GironaGirona | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 75 |
| 4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
| 5 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 62 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 54 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 51 |
| 9 | Valencia | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 48 |
| 10 | Getafe | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 43 |
| 11 | AlavesAlaves | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 41 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 38 |
| 15 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 37 |
| 16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
| 17 | Mallorca | 36 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 36 |
| 18 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 32 |
| R | Granada | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 70 | -33 | 21 |
| R | Almeria | 35 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 17 |
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