

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 60.46%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 17.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.17%) and 1-2 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Barcelona |
| 17.31% ( | 22.23% ( | 60.46% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.38% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.58% ( | 48.42% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.44% ( | 70.56% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.49% ( | 41.51% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22% ( | 78.01% ( |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.42% ( | 15.58% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.46% ( | 44.54% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Barcelona |
| 1-0 @ 5.69% ( 2-1 @ 4.65% ( 2-0 @ 2.5% ( 3-1 @ 1.36% ( 3-2 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 1.85% Total : 17.31% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( 0-0 @ 6.47% ( 2-2 @ 4.32% ( Other @ 0.87% Total : 22.23% | 0-1 @ 12.02% ( 0-2 @ 11.17% ( 1-2 @ 9.83% ( 0-3 @ 6.93% ( 1-3 @ 6.09% ( 0-4 @ 3.22% ( 1-4 @ 2.83% ( 2-3 @ 2.68% ( 2-4 @ 1.25% ( 0-5 @ 1.2% ( 1-5 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.19% Total : 60.45% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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