This is a really difficult match to call, especially as three of the last four league meetings between the two sides have finished level. Both teams will be confident of picking up the win, but we are finding it difficult to separate them here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.
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