A draw would not be the worst result for either side in this match, and we are finding it difficult to separate them here. Osasuna have only won twice on their travels this term, drawing four times, while Espanyol have already shared the points on three occasions at home, so a low-scoring draw could be on the cards.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 0-1 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.22) 
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