

| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | -5 | 48 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | -5 | 48 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 38 | -14 | 47 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 53.72%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Osasuna |
| 53.72% ( | 24.99% ( | 21.29% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.64% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.91% ( | 54.1% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.48% ( | 75.52% ( |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.89% ( | 20.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.63% ( | 52.37% ( |
| Osasuna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.64% ( | 40.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.02% ( | 76.98% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Osasuna |
| 1-0 @ 13.01% ( 2-0 @ 10.43% ( 2-1 @ 9.47% ( 3-0 @ 5.58% ( 3-1 @ 5.06% ( 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 4-0 @ 2.24% 4-1 @ 2.03% ( 4-2 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.66% Total : 53.71% | 1-1 @ 11.81% 0-0 @ 8.12% ( 2-2 @ 4.3% ( Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.99% | 0-1 @ 7.37% ( 1-2 @ 5.36% ( 0-2 @ 3.34% ( 1-3 @ 1.62% ( 2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0-3 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 1.29% Total : 21.29% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 36 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 18 | 48 | 85 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 36 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 72 | 34 | 38 | 74 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 66 | 30 | 36 | 73 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 36 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 36 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 56 | 36 | 20 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 56 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 36 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 51 | 5 | 49 |
| 10 | Sevilla | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Mallorca | 36 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 46 |
| 13 | Valencia | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 40 |
| 15 | Almeria | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 39 |
| 16 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 38 |
| 17 | Getafe | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 38 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 36 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 38 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 35 |
| R | ElcheElche | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 28 | 66 | -38 | 21 |
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