Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 56%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (6.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | 
| 56% | 23.09% | 20.91% | 
| Both teams to score 52.82% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 53.04% | 46.95% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 30.8% | 69.2% | 
| Heerenveen Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 83.41% | 16.58% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.62% | 46.38% | 
| Fortuna Sittard Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 63.32% | 36.67% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.53% | 73.46% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Heerenveen | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | 
| 1-0 @ 10.92% 2-1 @ 9.85% 2-0 @ 9.82% 3-1 @ 5.9% 3-0 @ 5.88% 3-2 @ 2.96% 4-1 @ 2.65% 4-0 @ 2.64% 4-2 @ 1.33% 5-1 @ 0.95% 5-0 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.15% Total : 55.99% | 1-1 @ 10.96% 0-0 @ 6.08% 2-2 @ 4.94% 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.09% | 0-1 @ 6.1% 1-2 @ 5.5% 0-2 @ 3.06% 1-3 @ 1.84% 2-3 @ 1.65% 0-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 1.74% Total : 20.91% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 39 | 
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 38 | 
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 35 | 
| 4 | FC Twente | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 35 | 
| 5 | Ajax | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 33 | 
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 32 | 
| 7 | Heerenveen | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 27 | 
| 8 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 26 | 
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 22 | 
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 19 | 
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 19 | 
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 19 | 
| 13 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 19 | 
| 14 | Vitesse | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 16 | 
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 | 
| 16 | Groningen | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 12 | 
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 12 | 
| 18 | Cambuur | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 28 | -19 | 9 | 
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