Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (10.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
