

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 40.5%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 32.68% ( | 26.81% ( | 40.5% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.98% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.95% ( | 54.05% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.52% ( | 75.48% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.09% ( | 30.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.8% ( | 67.2% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.78% ( | 26.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.69% ( | 61.31% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 9.51% ( 2-1 @ 7.48% ( 2-0 @ 5.59% ( 3-1 @ 2.93% ( 3-0 @ 2.19% 3-2 @ 1.96% ( Other @ 3.03% Total : 32.68% | 1-1 @ 12.73% 0-0 @ 8.1% ( 2-2 @ 5.01% ( Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.8% | 0-1 @ 10.84% ( 1-2 @ 8.53% ( 0-2 @ 7.26% ( 1-3 @ 3.81% ( 0-3 @ 3.24% ( 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 1-4 @ 1.27% ( 0-4 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 2.23% Total : 40.5% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 79 |
| 3 | Braga | 32 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 29 | 42 | 74 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 48 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 19 |
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