Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 59.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 15.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.11%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Mineiro in this match.