World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
USA
2 - 0
Mexico
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
| Result | ||
| USA | Draw | Mexico |
| 38.36% | 26.63% | 35% |
| Both teams to score 52.02% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
