We said: Lebanon 0-0 Iraq
Lebanon are well-structured and capable of holding teams for long periods of time, but we do not believe that they are able to possess the ball enough to create a sufficient amount of scoring opportunities and earn three points.
Iraq may be a better side than their record currently indicates, however, a lack of quality and experience in the attack has plagued them in this current campaign, and we expect that trend to continue in this match.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 1-0 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
