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World Cup
Gabon national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage
Nov 16, 2023 at 4pm UK
Stade de Franceville
Kenya national football team

Gabon
2 - 1
Kenya

Bouanga (60'), Kanga (88')
Allevinah (45+2'), Bouanga (76'), Loufilou (82')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Juma (40')
Omar (45+2'), Juma (66'), Akumu (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Gabon and Kenya, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gabon

All competitions
Last Game: Guinea 1-1 Gabon
Tuesday, October 17 at 7pm in International Friendlies
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1Morocco337
2Gabon315
3Comoros3-23
4Ghana3-21

Kenya

All competitions
Last Game: Kenya 2-2 Russia
Monday, October 16 at 5pm in International Friendlies

We said: Gabon 2-1 Kenya

 Despite their recent struggles, Gabon will be backing themselves to kick off the qualifiers on a high as they return home where they have lost just one competitive game in the last four years. While we expect Kenya to put up a fight, we predict that the Panthers will come away with a narrow victory in front of their home supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 58.97%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 16.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.75%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Gabon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Gabon.

Result
GabonDrawKenya
58.97% (0.111 0.11) 24.75% (-0.053999999999998 -0.05) 16.27% (-0.061 -0.06)
Both teams to score 40.53% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.75% (0.093000000000004 0.09)59.24% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.34% (0.071000000000002 0.07)79.66% (-0.075999999999993 -0.08)
Gabon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.93% (0.079999999999998 0.08)20.06% (-0.083000000000002 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.7% (0.128 0.13)52.29% (-0.133 -0.13)
Kenya Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.7% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)49.29% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.83% (-0.017000000000001 -0.02)84.16% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Gabon 58.96%
    Kenya 16.27%
    Draw 24.75%
GabonDrawKenya
1-0 @ 15.88% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 12.75% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.03% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.83% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.83% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.74% (0.018 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.94% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.71% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 58.96%
1-1 @ 11.23% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 9.89% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-2 @ 3.19%
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 24.75%
0-1 @ 7% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 3.98% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.47% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 0.94% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 16.27%

How you voted: Gabon vs Kenya

Gabon
42.6%
Draw
25.9%
Kenya
31.5%
54
rhs 2.0
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