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Women's Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Mar 26, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Stade de Gerland

Lyon
4 - 1
Bayern Munich

Dumornay (46'), Diani (54'), Chawinga (60'), Hegerberg (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Buhl (33')
Simon (51'), Hansen (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Women's Champions League clash between Lyon Women and Bayern Munich Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Bayern Munich 0-2 Lyon
Tuesday, March 18 at 8pm in Women's Champions League
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:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Bayern Munich 0-2 Lyon
Tuesday, March 18 at 8pm in Women's Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Lyon Women 3-1 Bayern Munich Women

Bayern may have to take risks if they are to overturn a two-goal deficit in Wednesday's second leg, but that could leave them vulnerable to Lyon's array of attacking talent, and we ultimately believe that the home side's firepower will prove too strong for the visitors, which is why we expect the record European champions to claim a relatively comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon Women win with a probability of 64.92%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Bayern Munich Women had a probability of 16.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.17%) and 1-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for a Bayern Munich Women win it was 1-2 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon Women would win this match.

Result
Lyon WomenDrawBayern Munich Women
64.92% (-0.035999999999987 -0.04) 18.82% (0.029999999999998 0.03) 16.25% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Both teams to score 58.82% (-0.12 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.12% (-0.15300000000001 -0.15)34.87% (0.148 0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.15% (-0.171 -0.17)56.84% (0.165 0.16)
Lyon Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.88% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)10.11% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.71% (-0.12 -0.12)33.29% (0.115 0.12)
Bayern Munich Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.44% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)34.55% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.72% (-0.102 -0.1)71.27% (0.096000000000004 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Lyon Women 64.92%
    Bayern Munich Women 16.25%
    Draw 18.82%
Lyon WomenDrawBayern Munich Women
2-1 @ 9.75% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.17% (0.029 0.03)
1-0 @ 8.01% (0.044 0.04)
3-1 @ 7.45% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.01% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.27% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
4-0 @ 4.01% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-2 @ 3.96% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-2 @ 2.27% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.95% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.84% (-0.006 -0.01)
5-2 @ 1.04% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 4.22%
Total : 64.92%
1-1 @ 8.51% (0.025 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.49% (0.026 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.4% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 18.82%
1-2 @ 4.52% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 3.71% (0.019 0.02)
0-2 @ 1.97% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.6% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 16.25%

How you voted: Lyon vs Bayern Munich

Lyon Women
73.3%
Draw
6.7%
Bayern Munich Women
20.0%
45
Head to Head
Mar 18, 2025 8pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Bayern Munich
0-2
Lyon

Zadrazil (45+4')
Chawinga (35'), Dumornay (65')
Nov 17, 2021 8pm
Group Stage
Bayern Munich
1-0
Lyon
Kumagai (69')
Magull (76')

Egurrola (18')
Nov 10, 2021 8pm
Group Stage
Lyon
2-1
Bayern Munich
Cayman (50'), Henry (86')
Mbock (82'), Macario (91')
Buchanan (25' og.)
rhs 2.0
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