Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberystwyth Town win with a probability of 51.43%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.74%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
