Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
