Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 27, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Austria
2 - 1
Estonia

Kainz (68'), Gregoritsch (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sappinen (25')
Paskotsi (34'), Kait (57'), Sinyavskiy (80')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Austria and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austria

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Austria 4-1 Azerbaijan
Friday, March 24 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current League A1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia	6	2	13
2	Denmark	6	4	12
3	France	6	-2	5
4	Austria	6	-4	4

Estonia

All competitions

Last Game: Hungary 1-0 Estonia
Thursday, March 23 at 6.30pm in International Friendlies

Current League D2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Estonia	0	0	0
2	Malta	0	0	0
3	San Marino	0	0	0

Austria produced an excellent performance to see off Azerbaijan - who had won five matches in a row prior to arriving in Linz - last time out and we can envisage a similarly dominant result for them against Estonia. The visitors' stock has significantly fallen in recent years, and put simply they lack the individual quality to unsettle a team of Austria's calibre. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 58.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 18.42%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austria would win this match.

Result
Austria	Draw	Estonia
58.11% ( -0.15)	23.47% ( 0.09)	18.42% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 47.7% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.25% (

-0.26)

51.74% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.48% (

-0.23)

73.51% (

0.23)

Austria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.44% (

-0.15)

17.56% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.9% (

-0.26)

48.1% (

0.25)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.86% (

-0.09)

42.14% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.44% (

-0.07)

78.56% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Austria 58.1%

Estonia 18.42%

Draw 23.47%

Austria	Draw	Estonia
1-0 @ 12.87% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 11.19% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.82% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 58.1%	1-1 @ 11.12% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.77% Total : 23.47%	0-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.38% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.87% Total : 18.42%