We said: Scotland 1-1 Croatia
Croatia can afford to play with a certain amount of freedom, as qualification is within their own hands, while Scotland are feeling the weight of public expectation.
Performances have improved, but the Tartan Army may have to wait a while longer to celebrate an elusive home win, given their opponents' combination of guile and steel.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 51.81%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 23.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.62%) and 0-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Scotland win it was 1-0 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
-0.35) 
0.41) 
