UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs B/C | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Bulgaria
1 - 2
Rep. Ireland

(Republic of Ireland win 4-2 on aggregate)

Petkov (6')
Kraev (59'), Atanasov (61'), Nedyalkov (85'), Minkov (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Azaz (21'), Doherty (42')
Azaz (47'), Johnston (51'), Knight (61'), Vata (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Bulgaria and Republic of Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bulgaria

All competitions

Last Game: Bulgaria 1-1 Belarus
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Bulgaria	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Belarus	0	0	0

Republic of Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: England 5-0 Rep. Ireland
Sunday, November 17 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League B2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	0	0	0
2	Republic of Ireland	0	0	0
3	Greece	0	0	0
4	Finland	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 43.38%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Republic of Ireland had a probability of 27.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 2-1 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.17%), while for a Republic of Ireland win it was 0-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.

Result
Bulgaria	Draw	Republic of Ireland
43.38% ( -0.58)	29.03% ( 0.06)	27.59% ( 0.52)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Bulgaria	Draw	Republic of Ireland
1-0 @ 14.31% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 8.82% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.48% Total : 43.37%	1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 11.61% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.02%	0-1 @ 10.68% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.4% Total : 27.58%